John Wesley Powell Research Conference: Academic Year 2010-2011
Walker Ambrose did his research with Dr. Diego Mendez-Carbajo on Subordination Agreements in McLean County. ABSTRACT: This study examines the frequency of subordination agreements in the surrounding McLean County from the years 1990-2010. A subordination agreement is a notarized contract between a lender and a debtor to subordinate a first loan from a mortgage or deed of trust to a new loan. This is an important study because it will help banks, businesses, and homeowners observe the trends of subordination agreements in the surrounding local area which may influence future trends. My study will analyze time series data utilizing autoregressive and moving-average (ARMA), and seasonal components to forecast future trends. The data is collected monthly and made available in an online database by the McLean County Recorder's Office. For the series 01:1990 to 12:2010 there are 252 observations that were collected. Over time the data shows a positive trend with a few instances of explosive behavior; the most extreme occurrence begins in late 2001 as subordination agreements soar, peaks in 2003 and extends into early 2004. The maximum number of agreements made in this short outburst was 286 in July 2003. There is also a downturn of subordination agreements just after the financial recession of 2008 indicating a shift in behavior in spending habits.
Graham Boden did his research with Dr. Diego Mendez-Carbajo on Financial Crises and Mortgage Assignments: McLean County, Illinois from 1990-2010. ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the number of mortgage assignments in McLean County, Illinois from 1990 to 2010, attempting to identify a relationship between the number of mortgage assignments and the general business cycle through the use of time series analysis techniques, including trend- fitting and identification of seasonal effects. Monthly data, from January 1990 to December 2010, was collected from the McLean County Recorder's Office database, a total of 252 observations. For the most part, the number of mortgage assignments follows a constant and linear pattern. However, several spikes in the number of mortgage assignments in the years 1993, 2003, and 2006 appear to coincide with economic recessions in the United States. These spikes indicate that, although the number of mortgage assignments per month tends to remain constant, the number increases during recessions.
Olivia Campbell did her research with Dr. Robert Leekley on The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Political Factors. ABSTRACT: Global climate change has become a prominent issue in today's global community, prompting investigations into the application of the Environmental Kuznets Curve to policy solutions. This paper estimates a global Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon dioxide emissions and examines the political factors that affect the height and turning point of the curve using cross- country data for each variable. The model attempts to include all attributes and policies of county's government as variables, such as the type of political institution, corruption levels, trade openness, the presence and strictness of environmental regulations, and the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. These variables are investigated by utilizing the existing literature and theory regarding their relationship with the EKC, and their significance is tested through a linear regression to determine their impact on carbon dioxide emissions and the EKC.
Eugene Kuzmin did his research with Dr. Diego Mendez-Carbajo on a Time Series Analysis of Recapture Agreements in McLean County, Illinois. ABSTRACT: This study concerns the number of monthly recapture agreements granted by the Illinois Affordable Housing Tax Credit Program. It is important to study the frequency of these agreements because their number indicates the amount of real estate purchased with the help of this program. I will conduct several different time series analyses: fitting linear trends, finding seasonal or cyclical effects, determining the presence of unit roots, and fitting an ARMA process to the series. The data obtained ranges from January of 1997 to December of 2010 with 168 observations. The data were obtained from the recorder's office in McLean County, Illinois, and are measured in the number of recapture agreements made each month. There are 2 clear breaks in the data, one in December of 2002 and the other in August of 2007. While the data before the first break and the data after the second break are relatively stationary, the middle segment has a positive slope that implies that there was a change in the frequency of housing purchased with the help of the Illinois Affordable Housing Tax Credit Program.
Adam Law did his research with Dr. Amit Ghosh on The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment. ABSTRACT: Since the reintroduction of capital punishment in 1976 1,242 people have been executed in the United States. One of the main reasons commonly given in support of capital punishment is that its usage serves to deter other potential criminals from committing homicides. However, there is no scholarly consensus on whether or not such a deterrent effect does in fact exist. This project examines this by building on the work of Dezhbakhsh and Shepherd (2003) and using a panel set of data for all fifty states from 2000 to 2009. If no deterrent effect exists, as the results of this project suggest, it seems prudent to abolish the practice and move instead to a system in which life imprisonment is the maximum punishment one can receive.
Duncan Lawson did his research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Right-to-Work Laws' Effects on Unemployment and Wages. ABSTRACT: Labor market relations and any policies that have an effect on these relations should be important to any individual associated to any labor market. One of these policies that has been passed in select states across the United States of America are Right-to-Work Labor Laws. (RTW) These laws effectively limit the powers of the labor unions by allowing workers to elect or decline to join the union or not. The reduction in members brought on by these laws will limit the collective bargaining powers of the unions and successfully limit the powers of unions. It is thought that this should ensure more jobs in the states that have passed these labor laws, creating a lower unemployment rate than states that have not passed these laws. The lower unemployment rate comes at a sacrifice of wages and the states that have RTW laws, it is thought will have a lower wage rate.
Michael Mann did his research with Dr. Diego Mendez-Carbajo on Lis Pendens as an Indicator of Mortgage Quality: McLean County, Illinois. ABSTRACT: This paper studies the time series components of lis pendens in McLean County, Illinois for a period of 252 months, from January 1990 through December 2010. A lis pendens is defined as a lawsuit filed against a specific property, which begins the foreclosure process. The variable allows for mortgage quality to be quantitatively analyzed, and can be intuitively identified as a leading indicator of foreclosure. Existing empirical literature has documented a link between declining mortgage quality and the health of the American housing market, though few authors use lis pendens as a primary tool to measure mortgage quality. Since the sample period overlays multiple expansionary and contractionary episodes in the American economy, a macro-level cyclical component can be established. Along with this find, two distinct trend components can be calculated — the second of which can be seen as alarmingly positive. Ultimately, an autoregressive moving average model is developed using Box Jenkins methodology in an attempt to forecast future values of the series.
Tian Mao did her research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Determinants of Housing Prices in China. ABSTRACT: Soaring housing prices in China is causing fear that a housing price bubble may exist in the market and could cause a financial downturn like in America. According to the literature review, population percentage change, Gross Regional Product (GRP), and geographical place are the traditional factors used to explain housing prices. I collected the data from 31 cities in China from the Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2005-2009 published by National Bureau of Statistics of China. In my empirical model, I use housing price as my dependent variable, and use population percentage change, Gross Regional Product (GRP), and geographical place as my independent variables. In my multiple regression analysis, I created two dummy variables: year and city. If there are positive coefficients for some of the city variables, I can conclude that there is likely speculation in the real estate market, because the increasing housing price cannot be explained by the traditional demand side factors.
David Martz did his research with Dr. Diego Mendez-Carbajo on The Frequency of Leases in McLean County. ABSTRACT: This project studies the frequency of leases consummated in McLean County from January of 1990 through December of 2010. The data, which was collected from the McLean County Public Records database, was collected monthly and resulted in a total of 252 observations. McLean County is ideal for this study because of the diverse mixture of property lessees; the data showed leases for business purposes, residential purposes, and a large number for wind farms. The project studies long term trends, seasonal components, and autoregressive and moving-average components in order to project the data into the future. The results of this project can be used to better understand the growth of the economy by observing past trends of the data. Furthermore, by projecting the number of leases agreed upon per month into the future, we will be able to predict the data into the immediate future and better predict the state of the economy in the coming months.
† Paige Maynard did her research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on The Effect of Niche Occupations in Income: A Closer Look at Chinese, Filipino, and Asian Indian Immigrants. ABSTRACT: As the number of high achieving immigrants in the United States is on the rise, the question as to how these immigrants are being rewarded in the U.S. labor market is interesting to consider. These high achieving immigrants are commonly entering the labor market in ethnic niche occupations, where a large number of their own countrymen are employed. By looking at the three largest high achieving immigrant groups in the U.S., the Chinese, Filipino, and Asian Indians, and their respective niches, we can see the effects of the niche occupations on immigrant earnings. Both human capital theory and network theory speak to immigrant occupations and earnings and are further discussed over the course of this study. Using census data a series of OLS regressions are conducted which identify the overall effects of not only immigrant status on income, but also how immigrant niche occupations affect income.
JEL codes: J31, J61, J82
Lawrence Nord did his research with Dr. Ilaria Ossella-Durbal on R&D Investment Link to Profitability: A Pharmaceutical Industry Evaluation. ABSTRACT: This paper is anThis paper is an in depth analysis of the influence that investment into research and development has on a firm's profitability in the pharmaceutical industry in the United States. The pharmaceutical industry is chosen due to its high intensity of research and development expenditures. The top 18 companies in the pharmaceutical industry are gathered and organized as panel data dating over the recent regression, which encompassed three years. The data are analyzed through regression and descriptive statistics.
The argument made is that as more funds are invested into research and development a firm in the pharmaceutical industry will experience a higher market value. Theoretically as firms spend more on research and development they are increasing the likelihood of innovation, which will cause growth in the company. The results of this study agree, and a positive and significant relationship is found between research and development expenditures and market value.
Adebola Olayinka did her research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Green for Gold: The Real Influences of Olympic Glory. ABSTRACT: The Summer Olympics are arguably the most important international sporting competition in the world, trumping all other competition in its importance. At the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, 204 countries competed. However, the top 10 countries went on to win 56% of the 958 medals awarded. It is clear that the results of the Games are not based solely on individual athleticism, but what other factors play a role?
This study seeks the makings of a medal winning country by exploring inputs like population, GDP, host advantage, national health and government control of resources. Furthermore, it seeks to find whether countries recently independent of a controlling government continue to win medals at the same rate. Using multiple regression analysis and Olympic medal counts from 1992 through 2008, it looks at countries' ability to utilize their resources to in essence, produce medals. It finds that a larger GDP, a larger population, better health, and a controlling government all improve chances of gaining a larger medal share.
Deming Payne did his research with Dr. Robert Leekley on Educational Factors on Student Achievement. ABSTRACT: This paper examines what factors have the greatest impact on student educational achievement with special attention to factors that school districts and governmental bodies can manipulate through policies. In order to maximize student educational achievement, it is imperative to determine which factors have the greatest and most significant impact on test scores. Because the private school system is structurally different from the public school system, the two types of schools are analyzed separately. Although there have been many articles looking at educational factors and their impact on student achievement, few include as many factors as the ones included in this paper. Factors that cannot be manipulated through policy will be controlled for in the regression analysis.
Kyle Portnoy did his research with Dr. Diego Mendez-Carbajo on High Frequency Trading and the Stock Market: A Look at the Impact of Trade Volume on Stock Price Changes. ABSTRACT: As high frequency trading becomes more prevalent in the stock market, investors are wondering whether or not the technique is helping or hurting their ability to earn a profit. By analyzing the relationship between trade volume and price change this study provides insights as to whether the influx of computer trading is increasing liquidity and stability or if it is creating more volatility and artificially inflating stock prices. This study focuses on prices and trade volumes of the Dow Jones Industrial Index on a weekly basis from 2000 to 2010. Cross correlation tests were conducted to verify the presence of a volume-price change relationship and regressions were run to test the direction of causality. Results show that the correlation between volume and price change is significantly stronger since the inception of high frequency trading.
Ted Richards did his research with Dr. Craig Broadbent on Environmental Equity in Illinois: A County-Level Comparison of Toxic Releases. ABSTRACT: In 2008, 21,695 industrial facilities reported to the US Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory Program. Collectively, these facilities reported releasing 3.86 billion pounds of toxic chemicals into the local environment. Of these 3.86 billion pounds of toxic chemicals, 78.7 million were released in the state of Illinois. This study addresses the question of whether or not this toxic pollution is distributed equally between individuals of different race in Illinois, The study uses both county-level hazardous air emissions data from the EPA and US Census data from the years 2000 and 2008. The study employs both statistical analysis and ordinary least squares regressions and determines that Illinois counties with higher populations of black residents are more likely to have higher levels of hazardous air emissions.
Lauren Seidner did her research with Dr. Amit Ghosh on Evaluating the Effectiveness of Gun Control Laws in the United States. ABSTRACT: In recent years, the social and legal environments surrounding firearms have changed drastically: This study aims to discover if gun control legislation is an effective deterrent mechanism for crime by constructing an index that systematically compares gun laws at the state level and scores them on 30 weighted criteria in six different categories. The index is constructed for 10 high regulation states and 10 low regulation states for the years 1996 to 2005, and using panel data and Ordinary Least Squares regressions, the paper analyzes the relationship between gun control legislation and crime rates, while also accounting for socioeconomic and demographic effects. This study finds that the gun control index has a negative and statistically significant effect on violent crime rates.
JEL Classifications: H11 (Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government), K42 (Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law), R59 (Regional Government Analysis: Other)
† Indicates papers presented at the Midwest Economics Association Annual Meeting.