Study of Public Opinion Polls Shows Increasing Confidence in Social Security

December 14, 2004

BLOOMINGTON, Ill. —A recent study of public opinion polling since the mid-1990s indicates Americans have grown somewhat more optimistic about the future of Social Security and Medicare, even in the face of evidence to the contrary.

The study was conducted by Greg Shaw, associate professor of political science at Illinois Wesleyan University, and Sarah E. Mysiewicz, an undergraduate at the University. Their findings are published in the Fall 2004 edition of Public Opinion Quarterly.

Shaw and Mysiewicz surveyed longitudinal public opinion data about both Social Security and Medicare from the mid-1990s to early 2004, examining results of various polls taken over that period.

In addition to the growing optimism that the poll results showed, the authors found several other patterns emerging. For instance, the authors write, "Americans continue to be deeply divided on the idea of partial privatization of Social Security, specifically on the idea of individual investment of a portion of Society Security taxes."

At the same time, polls show that the public remains strongly opposed to investment in stocks by the government itself. In the case of both Social Security and Medicare, "the public strongly resists proposals to increase the eligibility age," according to the polling data.

Shaw indicates that the data underscore public misunderstandings about the programs and their future. For instance, polls have found that Americans substantially overestimate the percentage of their incomes that Social Security payments will replace. Other polls show a lack of knowledge about the costs of Social Security and Medicare.

In terms of confidence in the programs, polls show the public becoming less alarmed about the future of Social Security from 1997 through 2002 while a higher percentage of respondents called themselves either "fairly" or "very well" informed about the program. For Medicare, the polling results during the period indicated an increase in the public’s confidence in Medicare’s future ability to provide benefits equal to today’s benefits.

"In the minds of the public, Social Security and Medicare costs pale in comparison to foreign aid and food stamps," the authors write. "The public’s poor understanding of Social Security and Medicare costs has ramifications for public debate about future funding shortfalls."

The study also pointed to potential difficulties in addressing future funding of Social Security and Medicare because the public is "staunchly opposed to benefits cuts, eligibility age increases, and other eligibility limits."

To discuss these findings with Shaw, contact Jeffery G. Hanna or Ann Aubry at 309/556-3181.