Anna Konradi did her honors research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Buying Votes: Examining Tufte's Political Business Cycle Under an Adaptive Expectations Framework.

ABSTRACT: Given that the executive branch's party desires reelection and that the economy is an important variable in the eyes of the electorate, to what extent has the president and his party been able to exert influence over economic variables in the months preceding an election? Much of the existing literature suggests that there may be an important cyclical pattern between the four-year election cycle and economic variables such as real GDP growth and real disposable income. Using data from the Council of Economic Advisors and the Presidential Elections dataset, this paper finds moderate evidence for the existence of a political business cycle as it applies to GDP growth rates and real disposable income. Subsequent analysis reveals that during elections with significantly high and low GDP growth rates, election results can be perfectly predicted based on the theoretical model.

Paul Oehrlein did his honors research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Determining the Future Income of College Students.

ABSTRACT:  Many people invest a lot of money in order to go to college with the hope that they will eventually be rewarded with higher salaries. This paper attempts to determine what aspects of college are most important in determining the future income of students. In particular, this paper studies whether GPA is an important determinant of income as well as whether some majors are better investments than others after controlling for other factors. In addition, the effect of math and verbal ability on income and how they interact with different fields of study are studied. The data comes from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth database and ordinary least-squares regressions are used. The regressions show that grades, natural ability, and major all significantly affect income.

Kevin Slattery did his honors research with Dr. Robert Leekley on Predicting Major League Talent Through the First-Year Player Draft.

ABSTRACT:  The Major League Baseball first-year player draft is a relatively unexplored topic. Until two years ago it was not even televised, even though other major spoils drafts like basketball and football are major television events. I predict the probability of reaching the major leagues and the probability of a player "making it big" in the major leagues for a player drafted based on a series of variables, like draft position, whether a player is lefthanded, and the schooling the amateur has received. This should help a team determine which players are most risky, and which players are most likely to make it to and succeed in the major leagues. The conceptual framework underlying my work is human capital theory. A multivariate regression model is used to predict the probability that a drafted player will make it to the major leagues. The major results of the study are that draft rank is the most important variable; scouts are effective at identifying and ranking talent. The other important finding is that college players are significantly more likely to make the major leagues, but high school players are more likely to make it big and become superstars in the major leagues.

Allison Harford did her research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Predicting Labor Force Participation Behaviors of Female Immigrants to the U.S.

ABSTRACT:  After World War II, the United States witnessed the permanent entry of women into the workforce.  Similarly, the US labor force has been shaped by immigration.  This paper uses data from the 2008 Current Population Survey and 2007 World Development Indicators to examine the labor force participation behavior of female immigrants in the United States labor market.  Labor force participation is predicted as the dependent variable of an OLS regression in order to determine whether the reservation wage effect or the actual wage effect is stronger in determining the participation behavior of female immigrants.  This paper presents the findings and sets a foundation for future research on this subject.

Karin Peterson did her honors research with Dr. Robert Leekley on Examining the Differences in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Across Countries.

ABSTRACT:  Global climate change is a vital issue facing the planet today, posing significant risks to both humans and the natural environment. This dangerous phenomenon is largely caused by the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, resulting from such activities as energy production and vehicle travel This paper examines the factors leading to differences in carbon dioxide emissions among countries, including income, energy use, and government institutions. A crosssectional regression indicates that an inverted-U relationship exists between per capita income and carbon dioxide emissions, but that the turning point at which pollution begins to decrease occurs at a very high level of income, suggesting that increasing income does not present a feasible solution to the climate change problem. Several other variables, including political openness and coal dependency, are also found to have significant impacts in the modeL These results generate important conclusions, and lay ground for future studies analyzing impacts on climate change.

Katherine Stankiewicz did her honors research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Length of Contracts and the Effect on the Performance of MLB Players.

ABSTRACT:  The goal of any professional athlete is to receive a multi-year contract that guarantees them a salary for multiple years. However, a concern that fans, coaches and owners all share is that when a player receives a multi-year contract they may have a strong incentive to shirk. Shirking is when a player purposely does not perform to the best of his ability and may occur when a player has a guaranteed salary. The goal of this paper is to determine if a Major League Baseball player with a multi-year contract will show any pattern of shirking throughout the contract. Each of the fifty players has a four year contract and the theories of moral hazard and asymmetric information suggest that a player may shirk during the contract until the last year. Descriptive statistics and OLS regression results provide evidence that Major League Baseball players with four year contracts do not have a pattern of shirking. Job security, above market wages and monitoring may be the important concepts explaining why there is no evidence for shirking.