Student Research Conference: Academic Year 2005-2006
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Jennifer C. Dawson did her honors research with Dr. Diego Mendez-Carbajo on The Effect Of Oil Prices On Exchange Rates: A Case Study Of The Dominican Republic. |
ABSTRACT: Oil imports represent a significant fraction of the trade balance for energy-dependent economies. In the case of small open economies with floating exchange rates, increasing world oil prices are expected to have a large impact on the relative value of the currency. This relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate has been well-established by the literature for oil-producing countries but not for oil-importing countries. This paper uses the case of the Dominican Republic, an energy-dependent small open economy with a floating exchange rate, to illustrate this connection. Two types of econometric analysis are used: multivariate regression and cointegraton. Data are in monthly observations for the period 1991-2005 and come from the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic and from several domestic sources. The real exchange rate is regressed on several variables including the price of oil, the relevant interest rates, past values of the exchange rate, and a trade balance variable. Results for the multivariate analysis show that increasing world oil prices do indeed put depreciating pressure on the value of the Dominican Republic's peso. Thus, increasing world oil prices cause other non-energy imports to be more expensive for the Dominican Republic. Cointegration results show that this relationship is more relevant in the short run than in the long run.
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Kathleen E. Frawley did her honors research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on The Effect of 9/11 on the Fire Fighter Labor Market. |
ABSTRACT: On September 11, 2001, three planes, hijacked by terrorists, flew into the World Trade Center Towers and the Pentagon. As thousands of people fled these terrifying scenes of destruction, it was the fire fighters and the first responders that went running toward them to save lives. In the post-September Eleventh world, fire fighters are now responsible for doing even more to save the lives of American citizens. The increased demand for fire fighters and their services has manifested itself in the form of increased grants for equipment, more mandatory training, and greater roles and responsibilities in preventing, responding to, and recovering from acts of terrorism. Under the framework of derived demand, this paper hypothesizes that the increase in demand for fire protection services has led to a rightward shift in demand in the fire fighter labor market, producing increased employment levels and wages. This theory is tested by estimating supply and demand equations for fire fighter employment and wages with a focus on how the increased risk associated with 9/11 affects fire fighter employment and wages. Using a regression method that allows us to estimate these supply and demand equations simultaneously, we can control for the factors, such as unemployment, that influence both supply and demand simultaneously and estimate the effect September Eleventh has had on the fire fighter labor market. This paper finds that while 9/11 has had some effect on fire fighter wage, it has not caused any change in fire fighter employment levels; a problem which must be dealt with in the labor intensive field of fire fighting.
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Adam Michael Gray did his honors research with Dr. Robert Leekley on A Study Of The Effects Of The Federal Income Tax Structure On The Changing US Family Composition. |
ABSTRACT: From dual-earner, married couples, to opposite and same-sex cohabitation, America’s family structure, lifestyles, and attitudes have been changing in recent years. This paper provides a framework of understanding how families interact and make economic decisions. It examines whether external and internal benefits to family formation exist. The government should develop policies are both equitable and efficient depending on what benefits exist for society, if any. Currently, one of the biggest gains married partners make occurs within the Federal Income Tax and Social Security Systems. However, this structure was created at a time when families were very traditional — a working husband and child-rearing, non-working wife. This structure will be simulated to show how America’s changing family structures are being affected by this obsolescent model. Results provide evidence that more and more families are becoming economically disadvantaged because they do not get the same tax incentives and benefits that married, traditional families do.
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Sherri Haas did her honors research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Economic Development and the Gender Wage Gap. |
ABSTRACT: Differences in earnings between men and women vary widely across countries. While a small number of countries have a gender wage ratio close to equality, others exhibit inequality to the extent where men earn over three times the amount women earn. Simon Kuznets postulated that an inverted-U relationship exists between the level of economic development of a country and the degree of income inequality within it. This study predicts that a similar relationship holds between economic development of a country and the amount of gender income inequality within it. It also predicts that disparity in educational achievement between the genders will be positively related to the wage ratio, as will be the amount of general income inequality. Regression analysis is used to test the hypotheses. The study examines data on 121 countries obtained primarily from the United Nations Human Development Report. The results of the study support the hypotheses. An inverted-U relationship exists between economic development and the wage ratio. This study finds that as economic development increases the size of the gender wage gap increases, but at high levels of development the difference in earnings decreases.
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John Haugen did his honors research with Dr. Robert Leekley on Team Success And Personnel Allocation Under The National Football League Salary Cap. |
ABSTRACT: The salary cap structure of the NFL creates an especially interesting labor market. It fosters fierce managerial competition, facilitates the payment of billions of payroll dollars each season, and forces players to vie for a relatively limited amount of money. Because teams must spend below the salary cap each season, team personnel managers are constantly searching for trends and patterns inherent to NFL personnel allocation that will bring success to their team. I measure the relationship between spending on types of players e.g. different positions, superstars, higher paid players, etc. and team success, measured by wins, playoff appearances, and yardage. I employ regression to determine the effect of player type on the different measures of team success. I find that increasing spending on certain football positions and player types tends to increase a team's ability to win. In other words, some types of players are move valuable assets than others.
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Nicholas Holland did his independent research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on Purchased Inputs Versus Time Inputs In Child Development. |
ABSTRACT: For a number of reasons the typical family unit no longer consists of a working father and a stay at home mother. Instead families are made up of two working parents or a household headed by a single working parent. These situations force children into daycare since the parent or parents are working. In my study, I explore whether or not the child is at a disadvantage by participating in daycare. I identify two competing effects: a lost time effect and a purchased input effect. The lost time effect of having a child in daycare negatively affects a child’s development because he or she misses out on time with the parent or parents. This effect could be offset by the purchased input effect which benefits the child because the parent or parents are able to earn additional income, which may be spent on educational inputs for the child. A priori the net effect is indeterminate. I test for the stronger effect in this study by regressing math, reading, and vocabulary test scores against daycare participation, the mother’s education, marital and poverty status, the number of siblings of the child, and age. I find that being in daycare does not have a significant effect on vocabulary and reading recognition scores. However, daycare has a negative effect on math and reading comprehension scores, which suggests that for these two areas the negative lost time effect is stronger than the positive purchased input effect.
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Adrienne Ingrum did her honors research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on High School Dropout Determinants: The Effect of Socioeconomic Status and Learning Disabilities. |
ABSTRACT: Considering the growing importance of higher education due to increased global competition, one might wonder why some students still opt to drop out of high school. Previous literature has focused on a number of determinants of high school dropouts, such as socioeconomic status and learning disabilities. However, this literature has not systematically explored the relationship between these two variables. Therefore, my research extends past literature by focusing on this interaction. A logit model is used to predict the dichotomous variable, high school dropouts, and to run simulations with varying values of the independent variables. The results show that low socioeconomic status, learning disabilities, and most importantly the interaction between these two variables increase the likelihood of dropping out high school for students facing these challenges.
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Brittany Kirkpatrick did her honors research with Dr. Michael Seeborg on The Gender Wage Ratio: Does it Differ Between Races? |
ABSTRACT: In 1964, the Civil Rights Act made it illegal for employers to discriminate against individuals on the basis of race, color, religion, and national origin; however, a gender wage gap is still present in the United States. Thus, this paper seeks to provide some insight as to why this gender wage gap still exists and what may be causing it. Specifically, it examines whether the gender wage gap is different for blacks and whites. This paper argues that because of differences in labor force attachment between these racial groups the wage gap will be smaller for blacks than for whites. The analysis will also explore changes in these wages over time. The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) database and twelve OLS regressions, one for each racial-gender group for three time periods, are used to conduct the analysis. The total wages for black females, black males, white females, and white males in 1986, 1994, and 2002 are regressed on the highest grade completed, hours worked in the past calendar year, and a proxy variable for labor force attachment. The results show that the gender wage gap is smaller for blacks and previous intermittent labor force attachment does affect each group's wages, but in different ways.
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Monica Rose did her independent research with Dr. Margaret Chapman on Does The Earned Income Tax Credit Reduce Poverty? |
ABSTRACT: Adopted in 1975 as an income equity measure, the Earned Income Tax Credit is now the largest anti-poverty initiative in the United States. The Earned Income Tax Credit is basically a refundable tax credit that reduces or eliminates the taxes that low-income working people pay, increasing income and reducing the level of poverty. This paper attempts to measure the efficiency of the federal Earned Income Tax Credit in reducing the level of poverty among different groups. I use information from the March 2004 Supplement of the Current Population Survey, which includes nationwide information on citizens such as marital status, number of children, income, and ethnicity among other factors. I also use information from the Internal Revenue Service to calculate the Earned Income Tax Credit and I take my measure of poverty level income from the poverty guidelines from the Department of Health and Human Services. The results of this study show that the Earned Income Tax Credit does not reduce the poverty gap for all eligible taxpayers, and only a small amount of taxpayers' incomes are pushed above the poverty level of income with the help of the Earned Income Tax Credit.
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Adam F. Turk did his honors research with Dr. Margaret Chapman on The Effect Of Financial Ratios And Market Hype On Short Term Stock Prices. |
ABSTRACT: This paper considers possible sources of short term changes in stock price. By predicting these changes, analysts can learn about the forces that drive the stock market, enabling investors to earn greater returns. Studies conducted throughout the twentieth century have provided a conclusive basis for stock market analysis. The concept behind these studies is the use of intrinsic ratios to determine a change in stock price. Unfortunately, few studies have produced truly relevant results. This failure led to the introduction of a new variable into stock market analysis: hype. Hype consists of non-market factors that can affect the price of a stock. This paper makes use of financial ratios and market hype to predict changes in stock price. More specifically, this paper uses the dividend payout ratio, operating cash flow per share, earnings per share, equity per share, and analyst upgrades as indicators of changes in stock price. All of the variables are taken from the quarter immediately prior to the quarter over which the stock price was measured. Those various data are then broken down by industry in an attempt to determine how the ratios affect particular industry sectors. The results show that investors rely primarily on prior earnings information about a company when making their current period investment decisions. Furthermore, retail and restaurant stocks tend to under perform the market as a whole while hype has a significantly positive effect on the financial service and communications sectors. With these significant results, much can be learned about the predictive nature of financial ratios and market hype.
